538 Senate Forecast 2024. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning. Bob casey’s seat remains the 7th most likely to flip.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Data for fivethirtyeight’s previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here.